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Despite the second wave of COVID-19 and the rumors of the ECB’s monetary stimulus expansion, the single European currency isn’t giving up. Let’s talk about what is supporting the euro, and make a trading plan for EURUSD.submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Weekly fundamental forecast for euroIn spite of, not thanks to.
EURUSD’s yesterday rise could seem strange amid the US stock indexes’ fall and the second pandemic wave in Europe. However, we need simply to understand, what investment idea is prevailing in the market these days. The euro’s descending move is seen as a mere correction. Most investors are sure that Joe Biden’s victory at the elections on 3 November will weaken the dollar, whereas the vaccine will give a boost to the whole global economy. In those circumstances, any hint at the pair’s growth appears to a be a reason for buying it. No one wants to miss the train that will go to the north sooner or later.
Formally, the reasons of EURUSD’s rally were Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s statement that a fiscal stimulus deal is still likely to be made before the election, and the Fed’s dovish comments.
If the Democrats and the Republicans agree on economic help, S&P 500’s rally may continue, the global risk appetite will improve, and the greenback’s position will worsen. Still, the market didn’t believe Pelosi: a deal would raise Trump’s rating. What do the Democrats need that for? Also, Pelosi’s statement sounded too ultimatum-like: if not on Tuesday, then never!
Fed’s Vice Chair Richard Clarida asserts that GDP’s pullback is connected in part with the Central bank’s and the Congress’ relief packages. He thinks that both the lawmakers and the Fed will need to provide additional support for GDP to continue recovering. Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostic believes that some areas of the US economy hardly ever recovered, or didn’t recover at all.
If the Fed is planning to provide an extra stimulus and GDP isn’t recovering, how can we speak about any divergence between monetary policy and economic growth, selling EURUSD in the short term?
During the fortnight ended on 13 October, hedge funds cut euro longs at the fastest pace over the last 8 months.
EURUSD and speculative positions in euro
Still, speculative positions aren’t likely to become net shorts: the negative US assets yield and Joe Biden’s probable victory don’t allow investors to buy out dollars.
The Chinese yuan’s consolation may suggest the reasons of EURUSD’s rise to the top of figure 17. In spite of the People’s bank’s intention to put a spoke into USDCNH bears’ plans, the pair returned to the area of its 18-month lows and is ready to update them. That will draw it to the lowest value since July 2018. Investors overestimated the negative impact of China’s GDP’s moderate growth in Q3, and paid attention to strong statistics on industrial production and retail sales.
Weekly trading plan for EURUSDI mentioned the yuan’s impact on the euro rate many times. Nevertheless, the eurozone’s domestic problems will prevent EURUSD from continuing the rally. The market is concerned about October’s data on European PMI. Most likely, the traders will be selling the euro at $1.178, $1.181 and $1.185 in the nearest time.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by cc_hk to worldnews [link] [comments]
Following a post from u/donjonne about a HUGE Weibo story on how to actually start your own 1:1 repsneaker empire, I figured as a native Mandarin speaker I gave it a shot and translated the entire article, since I myself am pretty damn intrigued what the guy's speaking.Do note this article is written in March 2017, lots of stuff may have been outdated, and I translated word-for-word with some pruned paragraphs that seems like the fella repeating himself. I absolutely hate the weird flowery prose Mandarin always carry when I work on translations, so apologies if the in-jokes or general writing gets a bit dry.submitted by TeddyTheEspurr to Repsneakers [link] [comments]
This is my personal tl;dr without the author's boastful claims, so if you're short on time, here's the quick rundown.
How do replica sneakers get sold?Taobao: Long history with the reputation for being the single biggest online BST hub, with Tmall and Xianyu Second-hands integrated. Lots of fake reviews and seller reputation ratings. The rep game there got outta hand, CEO of Alibaba stepped in and cleaned house, thus everyone moved to...
WeChat: Lots more convoluted, no proper tracking and confirmation like a real shopping app and build quality can vary greatly between sneaker models from the same seller. But through word-of-mouth, standout resellers get recommended more organically, of course you need connections to start with.
Agents: Your best friend if you're overseas, usually ran by freelancers merely collecting orders, reporting back to resellers and have them directly ship your kicks to your doorstep. Agents can be a single person, or a huge operation i.e. Wegobuy and Ytaopal.
How's the quality tho?Depends. Some will try to bait-and-switch, some will bond genuine friendships for simply being a return customer. Factories often cut corners to save some dough and end up with a worse rep, so like the purpose of this sub, dig into forums and guide yourself to trustworthy sellers. Author also goes on a tangent and revealed the numbers and figures of selling reps, along with the sheer gold rush he's in now. Read below for more info.
Anything of note?We're getting ripped off. Real hard, if you're a Mainlander chances are you're being sold 1/3 of the prices we see here. Part of the reason is that the multi-level reselling jacks up the price a lot, so unless you're buying in bulk for the purpose of selling them, good luck finding GET-passable OW AJ1's for less than $70. If you get caught selling, it's fines upwards of ¥50,000 and your license revoked, but nothing too serious beyond that. Author promised more novel shoes get made in the future, like Uggs and non-hypebeast dress shoes or sumthin.
With that outta the way, here's the translation for the whole article, hope you'll learn something for it and if there's any mistakes, feel free to point it out in DMs or just in the comments.
EDIT 17/05/2020: punctuation mistakes and missing formatting, also thanks for the kind words repfam
GOD'S HAND: The Secrets of Replica Sneaker Selling
Having been in the rep game for around 4 to 5 years, it all started out of sheer curiosity. I spent ¥1099 for Air Force 1's some celebrity wore, only to had my buddy show up on me with a fake pair of the same sneaker only costs ¥300.
Not everyone is some rich parents' spoiled brat where a pair of shoes costing a couple grand is considered pocket change, yet everyone has that sense of envy, the need to follow the hype to really stand out from the crowd, so do I honestly. But then again you'd only wear that pair of grails for only a good couple months and it'll be out of the wave, why not I find myself a more wallet-friendly way to do so?
Ever since dipping my toe into the replica community, I'm making connections, meeting new friends and getting scammed in every step I make, keeping contacts of my favorite sellers (looking back yeah they're not the best and cheapest isn't it huh). I'm deep in the rabbit hole now, buying so many pairs I'm starting to be able to tell batches at a glance, and where to hunt down that very best batch at the cheapest price. At this point it's natural that I'm thinking of selling these reps and becoming a middleman with the best of the batches under one roof (which is what's following below).
Anyone who has dealt with middlemen know that actually tracking down the direct factory outlets are nigh impossible, and the multiple stages of middlemen-ception where bigger but more discreet resellers selling to more minor, smaller middlemen can only make one dream of the sheer profit you can make for being on the very top of the pyramid, that idea has only been a mere blip in my mind. There was once in a bar my fam hollered at me with "Yo you remember that John Doe went to Putian for two years? Dude gave up college and has been filthy stinkin' rich by now!" I was like bah it'll never work out for me, but with the summer break I'd worth giving it a shot and have John Doe on the line. And boy howdy, ain't he wildin' right now with his business.
Some say every Nike you see there's 1/3 chance it's straight outta Putian, some say Nike's LC works by handling a pair of dumb shoes to an uninformed factory worker and have him say "fuck kinda shoes are these, looks cool I guess so it's legit?" The only way is to really tear down the whole sneaker and see the markings in UV, and once we're on the point where we can fake inside tags and its barcodes, ask yourself can call out fakes on feet?
A promotion for \"discount\" NB's on Weibo
Ever seen promos like these?
It's what I saw on Weibo today, and you've seen one like it yourself did you? They all look good on the images and you'd be right that they're photos of the real deal, just that of course the shoes you actually get were reps, and for each pair profits are never above ¥100; I sell ya an NB for ¥165, I'd only make ¥50.
REPLICA SNEAKERS: HOW DO THEY GET SOLD?TAOBAO
Taobao has always been the single biggest hub for BST. Run by the faceless middlemen, sold by the page visits, and reviewed by the bots. And stores with inflated trust scores were used as a front, once costing hundreds of yuan to buy now go for the tens of thousands. As Taobao is taking action to curb counterfeits to make way for legitimate resellers, these fronts are getting more expensive by the day, since then people took it to WeChat later on.
Ask anyone who ran a Taobao store, and they'd tell you "you'll never make a cent unless you're selling fakes". A pair of (fake) shoes take some ¥100 to make, and can be sold as a legit like the thousands of yuan you see on their listings, you'd get away with dozens of fakes sold this way, where you can properly guage and adjust said price to match your profit margins. Once the rep game got popular and the snowball kept rolling, the problem got too big for Ma Yun to not ignore it and he went full banhammer on every rep seller. With every media outlet roasting Taobao's ass, everyone wises up to the knowledge that almost every sneaker you see could be fakes. The stigma lived on, and no one would touch any store where its place of origin writes "Putian".
When life gives you lemons, you make a whole damn lemonade stand and just circumvent the whole damn thing by appearing that you're not from Putian. Problem solved. As you check your shipping details, it always seems to travel from Shangai, Shenzen, Quanzhou or even goddamn Xiamen of all places, even overseas.
Proxy services are very popular due to China's stringent laws
When sneakers are labeled as being shipped from Hong Kong, of course the sellers gonna say "it's from Hong Kong" but in fact it's shipping from Shenzhen, and the seller's excuse is that the sneakers are going through HK's borders from Shenzen then to the buyer's location. Even if you bought fakes in Tmall however, it won't be as bad as the ones sold as legit retails in Taobao. There's just too many of these rip-offs anyway! Had a reseller came to me to buy 10 pairs of sneakers, I make ¥10 each pair, but he sold it as retails and went on to make ¥500 each. Of course I'd panicked a jacked a prices a bit so I could have my own slice of extra profit to ¥20 each pair, said the factories jacked the prices themselves as an excuse.
Hoe's mad I guess
While profit margins are no higher than Taobao, they still range around a dozen yuan on bulk. For all the actual friends I have in WeChat, I'd never believe them not having owned a replica sneaker in their whole life, blah blah blah "factory direct", "wholesale prices" my ass, who really can head to the factories and buy direct these days? Rep resellers buying bulk from those factories are truly the "direct from factory" purchases. Resellers then selling the reps to middlemen and agents, that's another step. Said middlemen then resell these reps to quote-on-quote "middlemen". (NB: may have been the very resellers we see on the sub) And it goes on and on and then, to you, the customer.The so-called A-grade reps you see on WC, let's say we buy it from the factory at ¥200 (for example, the real deal won't be this cheap) and sell to the end-user for ¥400~¥500, it does in fact look decent. Heck, retails may get "called out" in forums and reps may sneak under the radar. Chat and forum opinions aren't good indicatiors for a rep's actual quality. Thus you may wonder why buy retails at this point? No one would really hit the New Balance outlets at their local Wanda mall and ask the teeny-bop promoter lady if their kicks are legit anyway, so wouldn't this been the dream job you've wanted, right?
These sort of agents are mostly handling orders from overseas to cater the westerners, mainly Russian, SE-Asian, North/South American countries etc., and will never be some solo project as they always come in groups of a few dozen staff members. These agent groups can also hire decently well-spoken college students to help converse customers in English and pay them good pocket change, which is eerily similar to how Forex scams work before, but this time they're doing legit businesses for a change. Sort of.
The most common agent you may come across can be your close friends, they get instant payouts for attracting their local classmates to collect orders for reps, and this wannabe hustler reports them back to the resellers to ship to school dorms directly.
REPLICA BUILD AND QUALITYReplicas reach far, far and wide. You could see your neighborhood cleaner aunt wearing 990v4s, motorbike taxi riders wearing Duck Camo AM90's, your kind old uncle next door exercising in Flyknit Racers and so on. NB, Nike, Converse, Ascis, Kappa; any brand you wanted they got it. ¥100 to ¥500 is what the factories charge, but after it hits resellers with a ¥200 hike, the illusion what seems to be a shoe that'll last breaks down as it wears out after a few wears. Bad stitching? Poorly-tumbled faux-leather? Off-moulded shape? I'd believe you but you sure you can tell if the EVA is fake by just looking on it? Is the gluing pattern underneath it visible even? A good deal of local boutiques sell ¥120 replicas at official retail prices like ¥599, a good ¥400 profit.
Putian factories are split into "heavy" and "light" industries. The heavy industries builds the sneaker as a whole from scratch, while the light industries were like CKD vehicles, where parts are purchased and assembled together instead. and quality of each part of the sneaker depends among factories. Lots of them try to cut corners to save every extra cent, which explains the decreasing quality of recent sneakers you see now. Larger factories has always been delivering consistently decent sneakers, as customers who contacted them are much picker and won't slash prices along with quality out of the blue. The stitching (and Nike Air units/Boost soles even!) is close enough to pass off as retails. Some of the more badass factories can make a batch of 100 brand new replicas for you, just hand in a donor retail pair and they'll get to work.The old dogs in Putian has been around for ages, runs most of the resellers you know and love. They buy reps from the factory direct at ¥140, sell to resellers at ¥160 and have the resellers push ¥180, at these prices the shoes are just not enough to satisfy demand. I've gave it an estimate if the factory got his order to 30 dozen pairs of reps, with each pair a ¥20 profit, we're looking at ¥7,000 a day or ¥20,000 a month in gross profit.
Of course, the Sales and Commerce Assoc. will still take a heavy hand on counterfeit sneakers till today, basically a few sellers every month get caught in the counterfeit business. The offenders walk into the office, sit down, had "the talk" yet again and pay a good ¥30k~¥50k fine and had their licenses taken away, for just awhile. Factories themselves get raided very seldom, maybe a every 6 months only a single factory gets caught per year. Putian has become the leading worldwide repsneaker operation for the entire world, and outputs around 50% the actual worldwide sneaker market, an estimated ¥20bn yearly. The Nikes and Adidases you wear now has an "OEM" for that. You may have bought a brand sneaker [in China], but it may very well be a fake regardless, to be fair the quality itself is indistinguishable anyway.
REPSNEAKER GRADES1) The Standard Putian's cheapest offering, pretty much trash tier and a certain Taobao sells them the most often :^)
2) The GET Batch A huge improvement from the Standards, and the so-called 1:1 batch from the mouths of others. It's really not, some of the materials itself is not as fine or accurate as the real deal. Tmall often sells these batches, but often get sold as retails.
3) The 1:1 The absolute tip of the high-end replicas. Take it to HuPu.com and only the eagle-eyed few would call you out. Not everyone can get their hands on them, regardless of price. [eg: similar situation to UABat's Union AJ1's]
4) The Retail Nuff said, just retails. (But really, reps cost just 1/5 of the retail price, why bother lol?)
A snapshot of KFC6855's wares
HOW TO TELL FAKES[The author essentially details how to LC NB998's, so this is best skipped as it adds nothing to the article other than repeating the author's point over and over.]
THE REPSNEAKER FUTUREIf you ever think replica sneakers will only remain within the hypebeast sporty trainer radar, oh you'd be surprised. The replica factories are on full steam, churning out Dr. Martens, UGGS, Tod's and a lot more to come. If you're interested, my WeChat: KFC6855 has them on sale right now, guaranteed to keep ya comfy this winter.
With all that said, I hope you learnt something from this, and now that you know if you really wanted a retail pair to sleep well at night, just don't get 'em in online stores. There's no glitz and glamor selling counterfeit sneakers, it's just business after all.
If you know, you know.
The European Commission’s first issuance of bonds as part of common debt and the capital flow to the European markets support EURUSD bulls. Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan.submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental forecast for euro for todayMoney controls the world. Everything seems to be against the euro: the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, the S&P 500’s retracement, the worsening of the eurozone’s economy and the ECB’s hints at monetary policy softening. Nevertheless, the EURUSD jumps up like a scalded cat. If the reason is the Chinese yuan that has reached its 27-month high against the USD, then why aren’t the Australian and the NZ dollars consolidating? Australia’s and New Zealand’s shares in Chinese exports are higher than the eurozone’s one. As it turns out, it’s carry trade that should be blamed for the euro’s rise.
The story that occurred to the Russian rouble is still fresh in our minds: carry trade made it the best Forex performer in 2019. USDRUB’s fall looked paradoxical too. The state of the Russian economy left much to be desired, trade wars slowed down the main partners’ GDP and the Bank of Russia dropped the key rate to stimulate inflation. It’s the latter factor that made non-residents buy out governmental bonds in expectation of a rise in price. A similar story appears to be happening in Europe now.
The European Commission made the first issuance of 10-year and 20-year bonds as part of common debt on 20 October. The sale will finance the EU’s coronavirus-relief programs. The issuance volume amounted to €17 billion, and that’s just a beginning. The fund’s total volume is €750 billion. The mass media once presented those bonds as an alternative to treasuries. That was one of the factors in the EURUSD’s summer rally. I think it’s a mere flow of capital from the USA and developing countries to Europe. Buying EM bonds doesn’t seem to be a good idea amid global GDP’s potential slowdown in Q4. Europe’s periphery is another thing. Greek, Italian and Portuguese bonds look tasty. That lowers their spreads, in comparison with German ones, and points to smaller political risks. Hi, Russia-2019!
Yield spreads in European and German bonds
Source: Wall Street Journal.
The more the ECB speaks about softening monetary policy, the more actively non-residents buy out European bonds, hoping for a price rise in the future. Obviously, German bonds have no room for growth, but the periphery still offers some earning opportunities. By the way, EURUSD’s 3-month swap spreads became negative in August. That means the Americans can make profit from both a rise in price in EU bonds and hedging.
The risk of a Blue Wave in the USA aggravates the situation. Joe Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ takeover of the Congress will unblock $4-5 trillion in fiscal aid. That will increase the volumes of Treasuries issuance and drop their price. Investors need an alternative urgently, and they find it in Europe.
Trading plan for EURUSD for todayHow long will the euro continue growing, considering the growth isn’t fundamentally backed up? The rouble’s last year example says that everything is possible. The EURUSD’s quotes can be rising up to the ECB’s meeting on 29 October. Then a sale-out may follow. I recommend staying outside the market for a while.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
The EURUSDis being corrected down amid several negative factors. They are growing political risks in the USA, the second pandemic wave in Europe, and the high risk of a no-deal Brexit. Let us discuss how bad the situation is and male up a EURUSD trading plan.submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Weekly euro fundamental forecastThe EURUSD is down to its two-week low for several reasons. The US stock indexes have been trading down for three consecutive days; additional restrictions are introduced in Paris and London because of COVID-19. Besides, the EU officials announce that agreeing a "fair" new partnership with Britain was "worth every effort" but that the bloc would not compromise at any cost, which sends the pound down. The euro bulls are trying to consolidate the price at the bottom of figure 17, betting on China’s rebound and the ECB’s unwillingness to boost the monetary stimulus before December.
China has attracted $6 billion in the dollar-backed obligations, which repeats the record of 2019. According to the median forecast of the financial analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal, China’s GDP will grow by 5.3% Y-o-Y in the third-quarter report, which is much higher than in the April-June period (+3.2%) and close to the data recorded in 2019 (6.1%). The foreign demand for Chinese securities and the optimism about economic rebound allowed the yuan to compensate for most losses resulted from PBoC’s FX interventions. These facts support the euro.
The euro bulls are also encouraged by the ECB’s unwillingness to expand the monetary stimulus at its October meeting. Despite a sharp downturn of the euro-area economy amid the second pandemic waves, the ECB officials believe there is no need yet to ease the monetary policy. According to the head of the Bank of Holland, Klaas Knot, the regulator needs additional information. The ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos believes that since less than half of the money in the QE framework has been spent, there is no need to boost asset purchases.
ECB monetary stimulus spending
The euro is supported by the fact that China’s economy is growing, and the ECB is unlikely to take active measures. However, the dollar demand increases amid the political uncertainty in the US associated with a lower global risk appetite, which sets the EURUSD bulls back.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 898 thousand in the week ended October 10th, proving the US labor market needs an additional fiscal stimulus. A poor reading has sent the S&P 500 down and strengthened the greenback. Investors still bet on the Democrats’ victory on November 3. However, they are not willing to buy US stocks now, as they remember how Hillary Clinton, who was leading in the ratings, eventually lost to Donald Trump. If the US stock indices continue falling, the market situation will be similar to that of 2017. At that time, the ECB, discontent with the euro strengthening, used verbal interventions, and the pair failed to consolidate above 1.2.
Dynamics of EURUSD in 2017 and 2020
Source: Nordea Markets
Weekly EURUSD trading planRemarkably, the EURUSD trend depends on the pound now. The UK is discontent with the EU's willingness to prepare for a no-deal Brexit can drop the GBPUSD deeper and send the euro towards $1.159-$1.162. I suggest one continue holding down the EURUSD shorts entered at level 1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental US dollar forecast todayThe optimism about the ‘blue wave’ prospects in the US, when democrats take control of the White House and Congress and boost the US fiscal stimulus, is gradually being replaced by skepticism. The Republicans may not lose the majority in the Senate. If so, the disputes about the financial aid package could continue after November 3. Does it make sense to buy stocks? The S&P 500 has dropped. The People’s Bank of China is willing to weaken the yuan. Speculators are existing record euro longs. Under the above conditions, the EURUSD fell below the support 1.178 earlier indicated.
The bets on Joe Biden’s victory are bets against the US dollar. However, this fact alone is not enough. If Democrats fail to control the Congress, the Republicans will oppose the new president just like their opponents did in 2017 when Donald Trump tried to carry out the tax and the medical reforms. Or like it was in 2020 when the White House offers a stimulus package, and the House rejects it. After the US election is over, continuous political uncertainty should support safe-havens, including the US dollar.
Investors wonder what will be after November 3. I don’t think the bet on the growing gap between the US and the euro-area economies should stop working soon. According to San Francisco Fed president Mary C. Daly, the US economy is strong and should withstand a new storm. At the same time, investor confidence in Germany's GDP rebound has fallen to the lowest level over the past five months. The number of COVID-19 cases in Germany has reached 6500, the highest value since April’s peak.
Dynamics of Germany’s economic sentiment
The expectations are also pressed down by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has revised the US GDP forecast for 2020 up to -4.3%, from the previous gauge of 8%. The forecast for the euro-area economy has been raised from -10.2% to -8.3%. According to the IMF, the global GDP will contract this year not by 5.2%, projected in June, but by 4.4%. The recession has been mitigated by huge stimulus packages provided by the world’s central banks and governments and the rebound of China’s economy. According to the IMF, China’s economy has already reached the level of 2019 and will exceed it by 1.9 at the end of 2020. In 2021, the Chinese GDP should reach 8.2%.
Source: Financial Times
Investors also doubt that the Fed’s monetary expansion is more aggressive than that of the ECB. According to Bloomberg's research, the European Central Bank is buying more assets within the QE than needed to cover the euro-area budget deficit. So, the ECB monetary expansion seems to be more aggressive than the Fed’s.
Budget deficit and QE, % of GDP
EURUSD trading plan todaySo, the bet on the divergence in the economic expansion and monetary policy may not work after the US presidential election. Speculators are exiting the euro longs, and the EURUSD is going down towards 1.1715 and 1.1625. Hold down short trades entered at level 1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
Over the weekend, the People's Bank of China cut the forex risk reserve ratio for forward contracts - from 20% to zero, according to a central bank statement.
Banks used to hold 20% of sales for some currency forward contracts, which essentially lock in the exchange rate for the sale of a currency on a future date.
The central bank move appeared to be aimed at stabilizing the Chinese currency, also referred to as the renminbi.
Last Friday, the currency rallied around 1.4%. "In the next step, the will continue to maintain the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and stabilize market expectations, so as to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level," said the statement on the PBOC website.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut rates and indicated they will stay near zero for years, China's central bank has reversed the bulk of the decline in short-term rates - meaning that Chinese treasury yields are set to be above that of other major markets.
That could draw investors to Chinese government bonds, leading to an inflow into the yuan - hence boding well for the exchange rate.
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysisSometimes, the Predator turns into the Prey, and the Prey, on the contrary, becomes the Predator. During the time of the US-China trade wars, the US looked as an aggressor attacking a victim, which was China. China couldn't adequately retaliate. US import tariffs pressed down China’s exports while selling off China’s Treasury stocks would hardly have been that effective. China was afraid of capital outflows, so it had to make concessions. Now, the victim has recovered and is looking for prey among weaker countries.
Financial Times, referring to the sources familiar with the matter, reports that Chinese power stations and steel mills have been verbally told to immediately stop using Australian coal. Coal is one of the primary components of Australia’s exports. China seems to be a vindictive country. It hasn’t forgiven Australia for the allegations to the COVID-19 laboratory origins, expressed a few months ago. The prey turned out into a predator. Will China continue retaliatory measures against Australia?
This time, Canberra has nothing to respond with. The share of Australia’s exports to China is about 40%, China’s exports to Australia are less than 2%. The trade war hasn’t yet started, but there is already the winner. The problems with the Australian coal exports and the yuan’s drop started an AUDUSD correction down. The AUD bulls used to seem invincible before. Australia’s economy was supported by several factors. The iron ore prices rose. China’s economy, being one of the key trade partners of Australia, was recovering rapidly.The AUDUSD rose by 31% from the low hit in March.
Dynamics of AUDUSD and iron ore prices
The AUD rise resulted from the rapidly growing US stock indexes and the global economic recovery in the third quarter. However, the AUDUSD rally will continue so fast in the next six-nine months. China’s PMI slows down, the US epidemiological situation is still difficult, the euro area faces the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, China attacks Australia, so it is natural that Aussie buyers are discouraged. The median gauge of Bloomberg’s experts for the AUD is $0.72, which corresponds to the current levels.
Nonetheless, there are always two currencies in a currency pair. According to Goldman Sachs, a ‘blue wave’ in the USA (Democrats take control of both the White House and the Congress after the election on November 3) and positive news about the coronavirus vaccines should send the USD down to the lows recorded in 2018. UBS and Invesco share a similar opinion. They recommend their clients to sell the dollar as Joe Biden’s rating grows. Hedge funds seem to follows such ideas.
Dynamics of USD and US dollar speculative positions
Monthly AUDUSD trading plan
I believe Beijing and Canberra will solve political problems, the yuan will resume its rally, and the Democrats will win in the elections. In this scenario, it is still relevant to buy the AUDUSD on the corrections down. The medium-term targets are at 0.745 and 0.762.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.------------------------
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying,
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus.
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China.
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak.
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing.
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."------------------------
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely.
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.------------------------
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U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan forex price quote with latest real-time prices, charts, financials, latest news, technical analysis and opinions. The Chinese yuan is looking to extend its modest winning streak this week, buoyed by better-than-expected manufacturing and non-manufacturing data. Global financial markets have been waiting for these figures to see how the world’s second-largest economy is faring in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. While the numbers are positive, they still suggest sluggishness in China. Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) See both the current exchange rate for Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) and the currency's historical development over time against the Swedish Krona. You can choose your own time span in the graph from 2012 to today's date. We also list the countries where Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) is primarily used currency. Chinese Yuan Among the Key Drivers in the G10. The Chinese Yuan appears to be the main currency driver behind G10 FX. Yesterday’s break below 6.6700, sees USDCNH trading at its lowest level ... This currency rates table lets you compare an amount in Chinese Yuan Renminbi to all other currencies. China has a complicated currency system, primarily due to Chinese monetary policy. There are two types of Chinese yuan : 1. Onshore Yuan (CNY): traded strictly within the Chinese mainland and regulated by the PBOC (People's Bank of China, the Chin... It's been quiet a ride in Chinese yuan trading. Technical Analysis Wed 4 Nov 2020 18:54:36 GMT. Author: Adam Button chinese-yuan. share. The yuan is one of the most-straightforward trades on the ... Erik Nelson from Wells Fargo Securities says China’s strong economic fundamentals and a less volatile trade relations with the U.S. under a Biden administration mean the Chinese yuan would keep strengthening, the key question is how much China’s central bank would tolerate that. The Chinese yuan is the ninth most traded currency overall and is the second most used currency in global trade finance. Fifty countries use the yuan to settle at least 10% of their trade with China.  Regulated by the People's Bank of China (PBC), the yuan is symbolised by ¥ and has a currency code of CNY (CNH on the offshore markets). The yuan is not legal tender in Hong Kong. One yuan is ... USDCNY: Chinese Yuan Gains on Biden Election Lead. From investingcube.com. USDCNY saw big gains into the end of the week after Trump’s pole position in the election was surrendered with Joe Biden apparently closing in on the win despite the ongoing count. The state of Georgia has announced a recount while legal wrangling continues in other swing states. The country is still waiting for ...
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#yuan #forex #tradewar We provide fast and flexible access to over 16,000 financial markets – including indices, shares, forex and commodities – through our award-winning range of platforms ... Coach Matt brings a special edition of the Forex Report in the wake of the decision by the Chinese to devalue the YUAN by 2%. This was done in part due to the Chinese exporting, the SDR inclusion ... 2. How does China keep its yuan undervalued? 3. How did China buildup large forex reserve nearly $ 4 trillion? 4. What are the advantages and challenges in maintaining a large forex reserve? 5 ... Talking Points: • The Chinese Yuan is rallying (USD/CNH dropping) as China makes moves to gain global influence amid US withdrawal • Crude oil and Pound keep their volatility levels high but ... http://forexwinners.ru/forex/xtrade-e... XTrade Europe Forex News The State of the Chinese Yuan. According to the South China Morning Post, foreign purchases of Chinese bonds doubled in May and Chinese banks have also reported a 61% rise in forex trading in the month as firms and individuals ... CEO of IG US Rupert Osborne discusses the US Dollar, the Chinese Yuan, and safe-haven assets. Are we on the brink of a currency war and has the US Dollar overtaken the prominence of the Japanese ...